000 04170nam a22003855i 4500
001 293438
003 MX-SnUAN
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007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 150903s2014 gw | o |||| 0|eng d
020 _a9783319038230
_99783319038230
024 7 _a10.1007/9783319038230
_2doi
035 _avtls000346420
039 9 _a201509030916
_bVLOAD
_c201405050335
_dVLOAD
_y201402070857
_zstaff
040 _aMX-SnUAN
_bspa
_cMX-SnUAN
_erda
050 4 _aQC902.8-903.2
100 1 _aSchröder, Winfried.
_eautor
_9326025
245 1 0 _aModelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections :
_bA Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures /
_cby Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt.
264 1 _aCham :
_bSpringer International Publishing :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2014.
300 _aviii, 58 páginas 18 ilustraciones, 15 ilustraciones en color.
_brecurso en línea.
336 _atexto
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputadora
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _arecurso en línea
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _aarchivo de texto
_bPDF
_2rda
490 0 _aSpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
_x2191-5547
500 _aSpringer eBooks
505 0 _a1. Background and Goals -- 2. Case Study 1: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Lower Saxony -- 3. Case Study 2: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Germany -- 4. Conclusions and Outlook.
520 _aOne of the most troubling and dangerous effects of climate warming is the potential for new outbreaks of vector-borne diseases – in humans as well as livestock – that had previously been eradicated, or at least effectively suppressed. One such threat is malaria. Although it is often believed to be restricted to the tropics and developing countries, climate change could bring malaria back to Europe, especially into countries where it was present until the middle of the last century, such as Germany, where Tertian malaria or vivax malaria, a rather severe form of malaria, was prevalent in north-western parts of the country until the 1950s, when it was eradicated. The vector itself, the mosquito (Anopheles atroparvus), is still present, and infected people from malarial regions could introduce a new onset of malaria. This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproductive and development cycles are accelerated. The resulting maps show that the seasonal transmission gate may be extended from an average of 3 months under present temperature conditions to up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080. Although models described in this book do not integrate such other driving factors as the distribution of water bodies serving as breeding habitats, or population density, the findings illuminated here could prove useful for establishing a monitoring scheme and for investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including many which are dangerous for livestock.
590 _aPara consulta fuera de la UANL se requiere clave de acceso remoto.
700 1 _aSchmidt, Gunther.
_eautor
_9326026
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Servicio en línea)
_9299170
776 0 8 _iEdición impresa:
_z9783319038223
856 4 0 _uhttp://remoto.dgb.uanl.mx/login?url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0
_zConectar a Springer E-Books (Para consulta externa se requiere previa autentificación en Biblioteca Digital UANL)
942 _c14
999 _c293438
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